In a sane world this would be a no-brainer, a stick of gum would beat trump. However sanity seems in short supply.......

Nothing the tangerine turd does puts off his fans. The supreme court are dragging their heels enough to kick the can down the road so he could feasibly be elected before the trials come to conclusion and if he does get elected, you can guarantee those trials will be kicked into touch.

Biden is old. So is trump, but the age thing seems to be a bigger factor in Biden's ratings. Biden is over 80, could he even see out another term?
Then there's the constant stutter/dementia debate. They both seem in cognitive decline.
A lot of voter chatter seems hooked on inflation and immigration, neither of which should be as big a factor as they are, but politicians and media frame these things this way.
Biden is also losing support for his backing of genocide.


South Park nailed it years ago with the turd vs douche episode, but it looks like both parties are pushing this to it's limits with this pair of unappealing shitbags. 300 million people and this is the best on offer? GTF.



Why it will be tough for Biden to defeat Trump


Given the election is 8 months away, this poll has had 'change vote' enabled.

He did admittedly well the other night. I don't agree with a lot of the message ("I love capitalism!") but it was the same energy that propelled him to a wide victory in 2020.

2 things I do worry about though: He actually does get noticeably worse in the next 8 months. Or due to that fear the DNC puts him back on ice for the next 8 months and the media narrative takes back over. Biden at his best can still win but it's a BIG risk, with no real plan B.

Voting “no”, as in I don’t think the Democrats will lose the election if Biden remains their candidate.

Lack of funds actually being used for campaigning and a very real possibility of getting convicted will sink Trump.

I think the odds are in Biden’s favor right now.

I think about this a lot. Probably more than I should because it's very difficult to consider this question productively. I say this because there is an unusual amount of chaos in this contest.

Trump himself is a chaotic force on his own, before you get into his kaleidoscope of legal troubles. It's not entirely out of the question that either of these men will die before the election, or more likely have a dramatic medical issue sideline them, or even more likely orate so poorly, so incoherently that a devastating 10-15% of their supporters will lose motivation to actually show up and vote.

These spectacularly embarrassing factors coexist with the usual 'strange times' moment in history with a stagnating Ukrainian effort to ward off a indefatigable idiotic Russian bear, and a much more problematic human rights disaster perpetrated by an unpopular despot. Then of course the economy which depending on which metric you consider is a historic triumph rising all boats, and a pestilence on working people desperately trying to survive.

How anyone can forecast under these circumstances is beyond me. One thing is for certain: American presidential politics are clearly a disservice to the electorate. And I don't even mean in the perrenial "the two party system is fucked" kind of way. Based on purely bog standard party ideology the most unimaginative partisan voter is not being properly represented. The sheer inertia that could keep two deeply flawed candidates who are obvious liabilities to their parties success in the race is staggering. I suppose, once again, the primary voters are partly to blame but the messaging from legislators, especially around incumbents seemed to be a coronation of what should be the least likely leaders.

How is a representative democracy staging a race between two immensely unpopular old men?

Oh, for fuck’s sake, this is not a turd vs douche election. This is a better-than-average Democrat versus Hitler election.

I can’t believe we’re even discussing this as if it were a debate.

Wood Goblin wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:44 am Oh, for fuck’s sake, this is not a turd vs douche election. This is a better-than-average Democrat versus Hitler election.

I can’t believe we’re even discussing this as if it were a debate.

I viewed it as a prediction thread, not as a debate, and answered it as such.

Otherwise, I fully agree with your response.

jfv wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:50 am

Wood Goblin wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:44 am Oh, for fuck’s sake, this is not a turd vs douche election. This is a better-than-average Democrat versus Hitler election.

I can’t believe we’re even discussing this as if it were a debate.

I viewed it as a prediction thread, not as a debate, and answered it as such.

Yeah it's in OP's first sentence. This is nowhere near the "she's as bad as him" sentiment that we did unfortunately see back in 2015/6. More like a "oh shit I really hope the guy with a 40% approval rating pulls it off" thread.

Ah, looks like I jumped the gun.

While I’m not not-worried, I’m less worried than most about the election. Dems have outperformed in every election, including special ones, since 2020. People are pissed about Roe v Wade.

And Trump’s primary numbers were abominable, for someone who had a lock on the nomination.

I don’t buy any of the current polling. Who the hell has a landline phone anymore? Does anyone under the age of 60 ever answer a call from an unrecognized number? Would anyone younger even speak with a pollster if they did? I even ignore canvassers asking for signatures for their poorly thought out ballot initiatives. “Are you a registered voter?”, “Yes, I am. Now please fuck off.”

It think the polling skews to the demographic that has landlines, does answer their phone’s unrecognized incoming calls, and is more willing to speak to a pollster, and I have the feeling they skews heavily to a certain demographic that still relies on voice services and earnestly responding to inquiries, rather than the population that’s become used to ignoring all unsolicited communications, regardless of format.

I’m hoping that the reality will be even more humiliating for the Orange Menace than the last go around, and that the age of useful polling is well past us, for everyone’s benefit.

Wood Goblin wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:44 am a better-than-average Democrat

Define average in this context.