Angus Jung wrote: Both of these guys need to learn the science of getting hitters out within 2-3 pitches. I really believe that another couple of years of 7 inning, 130 pitch, 10-15 strikeout games is going to fry their arms over the long haul. Maddux is arguably the smartest, greatest control pitcher in baseball history.

Bill James has done an exhaustive search of the career records of his 100 greatest pitchers, and he has a formula that he claims is a bulletproof indicator of career effectiveness and longevity: High strikeout rate in the early part of a career.

He claims that he can't find a single dominating pitcher (counting wins, winning percentage, total innings, total runs allowed and pretty much any other metric you choose, says he) who didn't average at least 4.5 strikeouts a game in his rookie (or first full) year. He says that anyone not higher than league norms in strikeouts in the beginning of his career will not be a dominant pitcher. He also says control pitchers burn out earlier on average than fireballers, which seems counter-intuitive, but is further supported by Roger Clemens.

Billy Bean, who doesn't want to build careers or hang on to players longer than necessary, has collected an assortment of effective oddballs (Chad Bradford anyone?) (Christian Underhander, to make a Silkworm pun that at least one of you will get ), and has been effective with it, but don't count on any of them retiring while still wearing green and gold.

All righties or no, I'm in favor of the Cubs' pitching choices. Having finally shed El Pupo, they look pretty good.

russ wrote:If you look at the odds in Vegas (fuckin' Vegas!) it breaks down to this:

2004 World Series Champion
The Yankees 7-2
The Red Sox 9-2
The Cubs 7-1
The Angels 9-1
The Astros 10-1
The Phillies 10-1
.
.
(way down the list)
.
The White Sox 30-1
The Dodgers 30-1
etc.

The numbers speak for themselves.

Find me the pre-season line on the Diamondbacks, Angels and Marlins for the last three years.

russ wrote:Bradley, you want an argument for why Wood is the shit. I'll give you one. I saw that fucker up close in Puerto Rico and maybe behind only Dusty Baker, he had the shit. When you walked by him on the casino floor, you felt the shit surrounding him. I don't have to talk about his 20 strike outs and all that other bullshit. How 'bout the fuckin' 2 run homer in Game 7 of the NLCS, or that behind the back catch off a liner straight back at him in his previous start. You think Steve Bartman is gonna get Kerry Wood down? Fuck no!

I was legitimately jealous knowing that the Electrical staff was busily casino-ing, sunning themselves, honing their ever-so-sharp beach skills and hobnobbing (sp?) with the Cubs in Puerto Rico during the Cubs/Expos series last September. But it's not spite that keeps me from buying into this Kerry-Wood-having-the-"shit" nonsense. I don't buy into it because it's lame. Freakish home runs? Snared line drives? Who cares? He's a guy with stellar "stuff" who is an above-average pitcher.

russ wrote:Greg Maddux: TIm is right, 3rd slot/pitching coach. He obviously brings some experience for the younger guys to play off of. That's gonna help. I don't think he's the saving grace though. We were fine without him, but we're stronger with him. (Hear that, stronger than last year, bitch.)

I really don't care about this argument. However, I am amused by the fan (i.e., you) who so identifies with his team that he includes himself in the "we" (i.e., "we're stronger with him"). You and the Cubs are no "we". If I'm wrong, and you and the Cubs are in fact a "we", please give me a call as soon as your Tribune checks start clearing. I'll be out to Chicago immediately because you're buying the first round, Kyle.

russ wrote:Pudge: Fuck Pudge. The Tigers can have 'em. He'd just fuck us up. Last thing we need is some over-priced, cocky asshole telling Prior and Wood what to pitch. Baker can handle that just fine if he ever needs to. Baker has more class and charisma than fuckin' Pudge in his little finger. We've got the best manager in baseball. I'll take that over Pudge-whacker anyday.

Who cares? And is this even an argument? Is it even English?

russ wrote:The White Sox: The White Sox blow too. 30 to 1. 30 to 1. 30 to 1. Good luck Crede crew. Oh, I heard that ALL the umps at U.S. Cellular field are required to wear face masks and full padding this year. I'll sneak in cheap during 1/2 price day, to watch the comedy, thank you very much.

The fan attacks are such obvious refuge for a Sox-Cubs argument that I am embarrassed that you used them. But who cares? However, what astounds me is the lack of memory Chicago sports fans have of: (i) Randy Myers being jumped by a fan at Wrigley Field; (ii) the debacle where the Dodgers bullpen and Cubs fans fought in the first base side stands; and (iii) Sean Burroughs (I think) getting clipped by a cell phone thrown at him by a Cubs fan last year. In any event, there isn't a day where I wouldn't feel far more safe at US Cellular than Wrigley. FAR more safe.

russ wrote:George Stienbrenner: Quoting Trump, "He's a winner." NY can keep his wrinkled ass. Winner? Spoiled brat is more like it. Uh, I thought he was gonna fire Joe Torre if they didn't win last year. What happened to that? Darth Vader and the Empire never could beat the Rebel Alliance.

Who cares? By the way, Star Wars references? Gae.

russ wrote:What else? Bring it on!

Nothing for now..

russ wrote:russ

Bradley R. Weissenberger

Bradley R. Weissenberger wrote:Does anyone remember Danny Wright? That guy won 14 games two years ago, and he's healthy again.

Is he the guy used to be on the Brewers with the knuckle curve? If so, give me a goddamn break. Fine for middle relief as a confuser, but not an amazing pitcher.

Wait, wait. I just looked him up on baseball-reference.com:
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP ERA *lgERA *ERA+
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
2001 23 CHW AL 5 3 13 12 1 0 0 0 66.3 78 45 42 12 39 36 2 5 307 5.70 4.62 81
2002 24 CHW AL 14 12 33 33 0 1 1 0 196.3 200 124 113 32 71 136 6 10 855 5.18 4.60 89
2003 25 CHW AL 1 7 20 15 1 0 0 1 86.3 91 63 59 16 46 47 3 6 388 6.15 4.48 73

I'm sure that's a confusing mess to look at, but for his best year (his only solid year) his ERA was 5.18
Don't go crazy there Bradley R. Weissenberger.

steve wrote:I'm sure that's a confusing mess to look at, but for his best year (his only solid year) his ERA was 5.18
Don't go crazy there Bradley R. Weissenberger.

There isn't a team in the land who wouldn't take 14-12 and a 5.18 ERA from its fifth starter.

Context, Signore.

>Bill James has done an exhaustive search of the career records of his >100 greatest pitchers, and he has a formula that he claims is a >bulletproof indicator of career effectiveness and longevity: High >strikeout rate in the early part of a career.

Okay, but are you really trying to say that throwing 130 pitches in an outing is better than throwing 98? Would James claim that?

>Billy Bean,

Was the gay baseball player who came out after his career. Billy Beane is the A's GM.

>who doesn't want to build careers or hang on to players longer than >necessary,

This is just silly. Yeah, Beane loves the fact that his team's payroll is a joke.

>has collected an assortment of effective oddballs (Chad Bradford >anyone?) (Christian Underhander, to make a Silkworm pun that at least >one of you will get ), and has been effective with it, but don't count on >any of them retiring while still wearing green and gold.

Again, you're claiming that this is some kind of baseball philosophy Beane has, rather than the reality (a way he has figured out to be competitive with no fucking money). "Effective oddballs" = guys that everyone passes on. Guys that are really cheap.
None of the real studs of the Beane-era A's, in other words none of the guys that are going to retire wearing green and gold through no fault of Beane's and to his eternal frustration, are "effective oddballs," w/the possible exception of Zito. They are straight up, conventional baseball studs.

>All righties or no, I'm in favor of the Cubs' pitching choices. Having >finally shed El Pupo, they look pretty good.

They're gonna be strong, no doubt. Derrek Lee was a huge pickup too.

...

He says that anyone not higher than league norms in strikeouts in the beginning of his career will not be a dominant pitcher.

kind of misleading....i mean, jamie moyer is 139-59 since 1996--anyone's idea of dominant. he is not a strikeout pitcher, but even so, he was probably always a little above the league average, even when he was scuffling early on.

i'll have to go back and read his whole thing. it could either be one of the great things in that book or one of the things that makes you scratch your head and wonder why he bothered.

oh yeah....

I wouldn't doubt it if Manny Ramirez keeps the bat on his shoulder for 2004.

fa! all manny DOES is hit. i mean, that's ALL he does. i'm not sure he brushes his own teeth. but he'll hit.

ah, i can't wait. when do they start playing spring training games?

vockins wrote:

Bradley R. Weissenberger wrote:There isn't a team in the land who wouldn't take 14-12 and a 5.18 ERA from its fifth starter.

The Yankees wouldn't.

Wait until Kevin Brown snaps in half.

thursday march 4th

white sox at arizona and cubs vs. san fran

hell yes,
andyk

tmidgett wrote:ah, i can't wait. when do they start playing spring training games?