penningtron wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 8:56 am George Santos arrested for things Trump has been doing all along. We'll take what we can get I guess.

At least someone can take a fiver out of his deep pockets for sexually assaulting someone.

But of course that only makes him more popular and now they're talking about him beating Biden. There's a realistic possibility, isn't there, that the Republicans manage to lock in permanent minority rule and then we can all watch a rapist sign a national abortion ban.

Trump could absolutely win again. Absolutely. If you discount that possibility you're fooling yourself. And think about how much worse it would be. There presumably wouldn't be adults in the room to restrain his worst impulses.

Anthony Flack wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 3:41 pm But of course that only makes him more popular and now they're talking about him beating Biden. There's a realistic possibility, isn't there, that the Republicans manage to lock in permanent minority rule and then we can all watch a rapist sign a national abortion ban.

Any poll data from this far out is useless, even as “a starting point.” It literally has zero value whatsoever. You may as well forecast who will win the Superbowl in 2026. This doesn’t stop the media from reporting the results (unless those results aren’t interesting).

No, I don’t rule him out, but don’t forget how absolutely *terrible* the midterm results were for the GOP in general and for Trump’s picks in particular. And this was before the Carroll verdict.

Wood Goblin wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:51 am No, I don’t rule him out, but don’t forget how absolutely *terrible* the midterm results were for the GOP in general and for Trump’s picks in particular. And this was before the Carroll verdict.

I put the 2022 midterm result squarely on the back of the Dobbs decision, not because the Dems were putting up better candidates and wooing swing voters.

With that fervor subsiding by the next general election, there's no reason to believe that Dems will have a good turnout. And nobody who was going to vote for Trump gives a shit about the Carroll verdict.

Basically, Dems are going to lose in 2024 unless some major event happens right before the election to get apathetic voters to show up.

Well, I’d argue that the Dems were offering better candidates. The GOP offered Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, and Kari Lake. Crazy people.

Also, why are you so sure turnout will be bad for Democrats? There’s really nothing pointing in any direction on that front.

Because I'm a pessimist and I have no faith in other people making choices that would positively impact society at large. I would love to be proven wrong.

I have a bad feeling we're going to be dealing with a lot of folks who want to vote for a third party in 2024.

jfv wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 12:52 pm I have a bad feeling we're going to be dealing with a lot of folks who want to vote for a third party in 2024.

Do you think Williamson will take people to a third party? Some think she'll just herd them back to Biden when she gets eliminated.

ChudFusk wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 1:13 pm

jfv wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 12:52 pm I have a bad feeling we're going to be dealing with a lot of folks who want to vote for a third party in 2024.

Do you think Williamson will take people to a third party? Some think she'll just herd them back to Biden when she gets eliminated.

Williamson and people like AOC are fundamentally trying to reimagine what this government is capable of doing. This is what we need. Biden, God love him, cannot save this country alone. He's a steady hand at the wheel of a sinking ship. Without real change, this country will fall to authoritarianism eventually. Maybe in 2024, maybe not. But eventually.

I would love to see Williamson debate Biden, but Biden's people presumably won't allow it, because I think they know Biden would be defeated. Biden is a good foil for Trump because he brings everything back to fundamental moral decency. But get him into the weeds and Marianne would do a number on him, imho.