It's just so weird to me that intraparty politics maintain candidates like Trump and Biden when they're generally unpopular.

ChudFusk wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 1:13 pm

jfv wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 12:52 pm I have a bad feeling we're going to be dealing with a lot of folks who want to vote for a third party in 2024.

Do you think Williamson will take people to a third party? Some think she'll just herd them back to Biden when she gets eliminated.

That wasn't to what I was alluding. I guess it's possible, but once the general election comes up, hopefully the democrats will do whatever they can to unify (as you mentioned) against what I presume will be Trump.

I think the demand for a third party will come from people like my mom; republicans and independents who aren't at all happy with Biden but voted for him in 2020 because they absolutely could not stand voting for Trump. The difference between 2020 and 2024 is that they now know they don't like Biden as president, either, and are just willing to say "fuck it".

Or maybe they (republicans and independents) just won't show up at the polls like what was mentioned earlier. I sure as hell hope that democrats still show up as there's still plenty of motivation for them to do so.

Nate Dort wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 12:48 pm Because I'm a pessimist and I have no faith in other people making choices that would positively impact society at large. I would love to be proven wrong.

Your post reminds me that someone here - I can't remember who - at some point during the first Trump administration confidently predicted Trump's certain victory in 2020. They were wrong.

I also remember someone here told us not to vote for Biden because he sucks, I haven't forgotten (or forgiven) that one.

I can remember a couple people who made that claim.

A few general comments:

* Trump doesn’t just motivate his own base of crazy people. He motivates the opposition too. Not saying it can’t happen, but I have a hard time imagining a circumstance in which he can fire up his supporters without doing the same for Biden’s.

* In terms of swing voters, not one thing Trump has done between November 2020 and now has improved his standing among them. Not one. Plenty of things have alienated or angered them, however. Nobody will switch from Biden to Trump because of how much January 6th impressed them.

* And all predictions, including my own, are worthless. Between now and 2024, Biden could have a stroke, the economy could tank, etc etc etc.

Wood Goblin wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 2:36 pm * And all predictions, including my own, are worthless. Between now and 2024, Biden could have a stroke, the economy could tank, etc etc etc.

Agree. A lot could happen in 18 months.

What I'm not seeing is the vast majority of people saying "no fucking way in hell should this monster be let anywhere near any kind of power ever again" which is NUTS.

Hmm, shall I vote for Biden, or should I scrape my own face off with a potato peeler and then rub dogshit into the wound? I dunno, Hunter Biden's laptop...

I think a large factor is that the media ecosystem is so siloed at this point. Trump's fans are getting constant cheerleading on OANN and NewsMax and Fox. They're inundated with propaganda. That's not to excuse their decision making but maybe to explain some of it at least. We know Trump is a monster because we're part of the reality based community. Many in this country are not. And then some people are just hateful Republican jerks as well.

Keep in mind that the loudest people in any room are going to be the Trump supporters, so even if there's only one of them, it's going to seem like a lot more.

It's really easy and tempting to speculate what's going to happen - as I have - but in reality, I have no fucking clue.

InMySoul77 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 3:42 pm I think a large factor is that the media ecosystem is so siloed at this point. Trump's fans are getting constant cheerleading on OANN and NewsMax and Fox. They're inundated with propaganda. That's not to excuse their decision making but maybe to explain some of it at least. We know Trump is a monster because we're part of the reality based community. Many in this country are not. And then some people are just hateful Republican jerks as well.

If you juxtapose the front pages of CNN vs FOX it’s like two completely different planets.

Trump at this point is running entirely on entitlement: "It's my turn (again)."
That's a totally different vibe for him than 2016, the only election he won.
It's pretty much a Hillary Clinton 2016 vibe, funnily enough.
And that's not going to play long-term, at least not enough.

Not that the overall development isn't still terrifying in many other ways, and not that he won't continue to have a role in all that out of office...