I am not an expert, but it would seem that Israel is going to absolutely pave Gaza.
Probably the only thing that is more or less a lock.
Realpolitik will likely preclude opening up a war with Iran in any rational case, no matter what they did. The U.S. invaded the softest targets available after 9/11, despite the immediate evidence indicting Saudi Arabia (if you were gonna attack someone). Where did we choose to fight the "spread of global communism"...uh, how about Vietnam, that'll work. That kind of displacement of aggression has happened maybe 1,000,000,000 times in the existence of our dumb species (and the rest of the animal kingdom). The same kind of logic will probably apply here.
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
22I remain convinced of this very simplistic model:
Without religious states, there are no religious disputes.
Without borders, there are no border disputes.
Without guns, there are no gun deaths.
With all three, the first two are super easy to manipulate so that the third becomes a tool of the state.
Without religious states, there are no religious disputes.
Without borders, there are no border disputes.
Without guns, there are no gun deaths.
With all three, the first two are super easy to manipulate so that the third becomes a tool of the state.
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
23The head of Egyptian intelligence is claiming Netanyahu had been warned about the Hamas attack:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... ed-report/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... ed-report/
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
24ChudFusk wrote: Sat Oct 07, 2023 10:41 am I don't know anything about recent developments, but sometimes I wonder if Hamas is run or at least infiltrated by Mossad operatives.
Not exactly, but:
When Israel first encountered Islamists in Gaza in the 1970s and '80s, they seemed focused on studying the Quran, not on confrontation with Israel. The Israeli government officially recognized a precursor to Hamas called Mujama Al-Islamiya, registering the group as a charity. It allowed Mujama members to set up an Islamic university and build mosques, clubs and schools. Crucially, Israel often stood aside when the Islamists and their secular left-wing Palestinian rivals battled, sometimes violently, for influence in both Gaza and the West Bank.
[...]
Israeli officials who served in Gaza disagree on how much their own actions may have contributed to the rise of Hamas. They blame the group's recent ascent on outsiders, primarily Iran. This view is shared by the Israeli government. "Hamas in Gaza was built by Iran as a foundation for power, and is backed through funding, through training and through the provision of advanced weapons," Mr. Olmert said last Saturday. Hamas has denied receiving military assistance from Iran.
Hamas traces its roots back to the Muslim Brotherhood ...
[...]
In Gaza [after the Six-Day War], Israel hunted down members of Fatah and other secular PLO factions, but it dropped harsh restrictions imposed on Islamic activists by the territory's previous Egyptian rulers.
[...]
The Muslim Brotherhood, led in Gaza by Sheikh Yassin, was free to spread its message openly. In addition to launching various charity projects, Sheikh Yassin collected money to reprint the writings of Sayyid Qutb, an Egyptian member of the Brotherhood who, before his execution by President Nasser, advocated global jihad. He is now seen as one of the founding ideologues of militant political Islam.
Mr. Cohen, who worked at the time for the Israeli government's religious affairs department in Gaza, says he began to hear disturbing reports in the mid-1970s about Sheikh Yassin from traditional Islamic clerics. He says they warned that the sheikh had no formal Islamic training and was ultimately more interested in politics than faith. "They said, 'Keep away from Yassin. He is a big danger,'" recalls Mr. Cohen.
Instead, Israel's military-led administration in Gaza looked favorably on the paraplegic cleric, who set up a wide network of schools, clinics, a library and kindergartens. Sheikh Yassin formed the Islamist group Mujama al-Islamiya, which was officially recognized by Israel as a charity and then, in 1979, as an association. Israel also endorsed the establishment of the Islamic University of Gaza, which it now regards as a hotbed of militancy.
But Brig. Gen. Yitzhak Segev, who took over as governor in Gaza in late 1979, says he had no illusions about Sheikh Yassin's long-term intentions or the perils of political Islam. As Israel's former military attache in Iran, he'd watched Islamic fervor topple the Shah. However, in Gaza, says Mr. Segev, "our main enemy was Fatah," and the cleric "was still 100% peaceful" towards Israel.
[...]
In fact, the cleric and Israel had a shared enemy: secular Palestinian activists. After a failed attempt in Gaza to oust secularists from leadership of the Palestinian Red Crescent, the Muslim version of the Red Cross, Mujama staged a violent demonstration, storming the Red Crescent building. Islamists also attacked shops selling liquor and cinemas. The Israeli military mostly stood on the sidelines.
sourceA year later, in 1984, the Israeli military received a tip-off from Fatah supporters that Sheikh Yassin's Gaza Islamists were collecting arms, according to Israeli officials in Gaza at the time. Israeli troops raided a mosque and found a cache of weapons. Sheikh Yassin was jailed. He told Israeli interrogators the weapons were for use against rival Palestinians, not Israel, according to Mr. Hacham, the military affairs expert who says he spoke frequently with jailed Islamists. The cleric was released after a year and continued to expand Mujama's reach across Gaza.
Around the time of Sheikh Yassin's arrest, Mr. Cohen, the religious affairs official, sent a report to senior Israeli military and civilian officials in Gaza. Describing the cleric as a "diabolical" figure, he warned that Israel's policy towards the Islamists was allowing Mujama to develop into a dangerous force.
born to give
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
25Reports are starting to come out that Hezbollah has been given the green light to mobilize and prepare for attack from Israel's north.
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
26The flip side of paving Gaza indiscriminately is a ground offensive, I guess.eephus wrote: I am not an expert, but it would seem that Israel is going to absolutely pave Gaza.
Probably the only thing that is more or less a lock.
Realpolitik will likely preclude opening up a war with Iran in any rational case, no matter what they did. The U.S. invaded the softest targets available after 9/11, despite the immediate evidence indicting Saudi Arabia (if you were gonna attack someone). Where did we choose to fight the "spread of global communism"...uh, how about Vietnam, that'll work. That kind of displacement of aggression has happened maybe 1,000,000,000 times in the existence of our dumb species (and the rest of the animal kingdom). The same kind of logic will probably apply here.
A ground offensive has to be what Hamas is banking on, by taking so many hostages, etc. etc. Giving Israel reasons not to level the entire strip and have to roll in there.
I mean...again, I don't know shit, but yeeeeeesh. WTF are Israeli troops (reservists) walking into if they try to "invade" Gaza. What else they didn't know about, in terms of preparations and fortifications. Has got to be a lot.
That uncertainty has to be the reason Israel is moving relatively slowly. Cutting off electricity, water, etc.--which I suppose is probably a war crime but that's not going to stop anyone.
What's the general public's appetite for blood? That's what always drives this shit in the end. It's never not horrible, but sometimes people are OK with horrible.
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
27Pretty sure people are going to be a hundred times less upset when Israel slaughters a hundred times more innocent civilians in retaliation.
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
28I guess Israel would hesitate due to a) Israeli hostages getting caught in aerial wipeout and b) the probability of ambush making ground assault a nightmare.Anthony Flack wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:23 pm Pretty sure people are going to be a hundred times less upset when Israel slaughters a hundred times more innocent civilians in retaliation.
If they get into it, we're not even going to know how many people died. Faceless, nameless, not regarded as human by the apparatus.
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
29I'm not expert on the region either. Things look increasingly dire. If you're a praying person, please pray for innocent lives that will be lost. There will be many. The animosity and vindictiveness on both sides has ramped up.
Re: War! What is it good for, huh!
30Goddamn, these poor unfortunate Palestinian people who are just trying to live a decent life as second class citizens are stuck without basic necessities for an indeterminate amount of time. Also thinking of Israeli kids who just wanted to check out a concert and got shot up or abducted.
One thing I appreciate here at the PRF is in all the shades of opinion everyone seems to understand what a shit Netenyahu is, and that state driven oppression and the terrorist response to it are merely two different forms of awful. Not a hero to be found in that showdown.
One thing I appreciate here at the PRF is in all the shades of opinion everyone seems to understand what a shit Netenyahu is, and that state driven oppression and the terrorist response to it are merely two different forms of awful. Not a hero to be found in that showdown.