nate is not a pollster. his model takes into account the margins of error that you mention. i trust him when he says it's close but you are probably right that trump is ahead.GuyLaCroix wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:18 pm I wouldn't trust Nate Silver to accurately guess this, he didn't the last couple times. One was completely off (16) and the other was a wildly closer decision than his projections.
The conservatives that matter, the ones who don't go in for the buffoon showmanship but rather show up and vote, they are not participating in polling like this. That's part of the Liberal Media.
Nixon looks up from Hell and smiles as the Silent Majority goes about their business.
I'm not saying Trump is ahead, I'm just saying that hubris makes Nate the 'weatherman of ideology' or whatever goofy thing we could call him. There is a vast constituency on the conservative side that just gets forgotten about every time this comes up, and he's never been great at accounting for it.hbiden@onlyfans.com wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 2:35 amnate is not a pollster. his model takes into account the margins of error that you mention. i trust him when he says it's close but you are probably right that trump is ahead.GuyLaCroix wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:18 pm I wouldn't trust Nate Silver to accurately guess this, he didn't the last couple times. One was completely off (16) and the other was a wildly closer decision than his projections.
The conservatives that matter, the ones who don't go in for the buffoon showmanship but rather show up and vote, they are not participating in polling like this. That's part of the Liberal Media.
Nixon looks up from Hell and smiles as the Silent Majority goes about their business.
it still sounds like you're saying they underestimate trump. texas is solid red according to everyone. who is this strawman feeding you election info?GuyLaCroix wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 9:45 amI'm not saying Trump is ahead, I'm just saying that hubris makes Nate the 'weatherman of ideology' or whatever goofy thing we could call him. There is a vast constituency on the conservative side that just gets forgotten about every time this comes up, and he's never been great at accounting for it.hbiden@onlyfans.com wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 2:35 amnate is not a pollster. his model takes into account the margins of error that you mention. i trust him when he says it's close but you are probably right that trump is ahead.GuyLaCroix wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:18 pm I wouldn't trust Nate Silver to accurately guess this, he didn't the last couple times. One was completely off (16) and the other was a wildly closer decision than his projections.
The conservatives that matter, the ones who don't go in for the buffoon showmanship but rather show up and vote, they are not participating in polling like this. That's part of the Liberal Media.
Nixon looks up from Hell and smiles as the Silent Majority goes about their business.
It's like when people tell me Texas is gonna go blue. I just can't imagine that happening, and if you grew up outside of a major metro area in that state, you shouldn't be able to either. The work has been done to ensure that this won't be the case.
At least one prominent web site (one to which Nate Silver contributes!) says that Texas is one of several likely tipping point states and is NOT a "Solid R".hbiden@onlyfans.com wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 10:27 amit still sounds like you're saying they underestimate trump. texas is solid red according to everyone. who is this strawman feeding you election info?GuyLaCroix wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 9:45 amI'm not saying Trump is ahead, I'm just saying that hubris makes Nate the 'weatherman of ideology' or whatever goofy thing we could call him. There is a vast constituency on the conservative side that just gets forgotten about every time this comes up, and he's never been great at accounting for it.hbiden@onlyfans.com wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 2:35 am
nate is not a pollster. his model takes into account the margins of error that you mention. i trust him when he says it's close but you are probably right that trump is ahead.
It's like when people tell me Texas is gonna go blue. I just can't imagine that happening, and if you grew up outside of a major metro area in that state, you shouldn't be able to either. The work has been done to ensure that this won't be the case.
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