oxlongm wrote:Is Bayrou more likely to take center-left votes away from Royal, or center-right votes away from Sarkozy?

Yes, he is.
He is actually taking my "left" vote for a few months now. I'm still hesitating because I'm scared of him turning to a Right wing President once elected. He said he would have Ministers of both side in his government.

The left vote being split in 2002, and allowing a Chirac/Le Pen face-off despite the left winning the popular vote, means that fewer people are going to vote green/communist/worker’s party in the first round this time. I think that’s a shame. Understandable, but sad. One of the things I like about the French system is being able to cast your vote for someone who may just come close to representing your views, at least in the first round, and not just for one of the 2 big central blocks. I can’t see Royal as president. She hasn’t ran a good campaign, doesn’t appear sure-footed, and I think there has been a general shift to the right in the last few years. Bayrou was being talked up until recently, but that’s more down to disillusion with the two leading candidates. His support will fade away. The danger is in him getting enough of the vote to allow Le Pen into the second round. Le Pen will get his 15ish %. There’s a lot of sympathy for his views, and he’s good at coming across as a non-professional “what-you-see-is what-you-get”, man of the people. Not people you’d want anything to do with, but there are a lot of them about. I think it’s unlikely he’ll get higher than third place as more people will vote this time which will diminish his share. Also a fair few of his supporters could happily stomach Sarko. I think he’ll win. France is ripe for a Thatcher-like overhaul and he’s the man to attempt it. Disruption, unrest and bitterness here we come. And despite having lived here for 12 years I can’t vote.

Trophy Moose wrote:The left vote being split in 2002, and allowing a Chirac/Le Pen face-off despite the left winning the popular vote, means that fewer people are going to vote green/communist/worker’s party in the first round this time. I think that’s a shame. Understandable, but sad. One of the things I like about the French system is being able to cast your vote for someone who may just come close to representing your views, at least in the first round, and not just for one of the 2 big central blocks. I can’t see Royal as president. She hasn’t ran a good campaign, doesn’t appear sure-footed, and I think there has been a general shift to the right in the last few years. Bayrou was being talked up until recently, but that’s more down to disillusion with the two leading candidates. His support will fade away. The danger is in him getting enough of the vote to allow Le Pen into the second round. Le Pen will get his 15ish %. There’s a lot of sympathy for his views, and he’s good at coming across as a non-professional “what-you-see-is what-you-get”, man of the people. Not people you’d want anything to do with, but there are a lot of them about. I think it’s unlikely he’ll get higher than third place as more people will vote this time which will diminish his share. Also a fair few of his supporters could happily stomach Sarko. I think he’ll win. France is ripe for a Thatcher-like overhaul and he’s the man to attempt it. Disruption, unrest and bitterness here we come. And despite having lived here for 12 years I can’t vote.

I agree

Shame we can't agree on a rosier picture, M. Bug. For a lot of my friends it's clear; Royal it is. But few of them are enthusiastic. It's a rather her than Sarkozy vote. The problem is that it's obvious you're not getting the whole story with her, or/and that she relies too heavily on her entourage/hubby. With Sarko you know what you're voting for. It's clear. And that might just be the clincher for the all important middle-ground voter.

Since I'm living in the french part of Switzerland, I'm closely following the french presidential.

Sly Bug wrote: I like the ideas of Besancenot but I don't believe it would be possible to apply them. It's the communist utopia.

I kinda agree with you Sly, Besancenot seems ok.
But the main thought I have everytime I watch discussions on TV about all that is: thank God, I don't have to vote.
It sounds maybe very easy to say that, but I really can't trust anyone of those 12 politicians.
They're either dangerous (Le Pen + Sarkozy), ridiculous (de Villiers), funny (Nihous) or inefficient (Royal) and I can't find a word for that but Bayrou is not strong enough to be a President.

If anyone can indulge, I'd appreciate a bit more perspective from the French on what the left expects domestically from a Sarkozy presidency. I hear/read a fair bit of rhetoric on his shortcomings as a potential Thatcherite but haven't gotten a clear picture of how the French left believes this will translate on the ground.

Did the Algeria attacks came at a convenient time for Sarkozy?

wayne madsen report april 12, 2007 wrote:More false flag terror attacks prior to French presidential elections? Just days prior to the French presidential election which pits anti-North African Muslim conservative Nicolas Sarkozy, supported by the international neo-con clique, against a Socialist and centrist candidate, bombs have gone off in Algeria and Morocco. The attacks have been blamed on "Al Qaeda," the neo-cons' favorite (and likely controlled) bogeyman.

French Interior Minister Francois Baroin, Sarkozy's replacement, immediately used the bombings in North Africa to claim that France was under threat of terrorism -- conveniently just prior to the election in which Sarkozy has made the threat of North African Muslim immigrants and terrorism a key issue. Neo-con outlets like the Times of London and Time magazine are now reporting that the North African bombings are a warning to France.

clocker bob wrote:Did the Algeria attacks came at a convenient time for Sarkozy?

wayne madsen report april 12, 2007 wrote:More false flag terror attacks prior to French presidential elections? Just days prior to the French presidential election which pits anti-North African Muslim conservative Nicolas Sarkozy, supported by the international neo-con clique, against a Socialist and centrist candidate, bombs have gone off in Algeria and Morocco. The attacks have been blamed on "Al Qaeda," the neo-cons' favorite (and likely controlled) bogeyman.

French Interior Minister Francois Baroin, Sarkozy's replacement, immediately used the bombings in North Africa to claim that France was under threat of terrorism -- conveniently just prior to the election in which Sarkozy has made the threat of North African Muslim immigrants and terrorism a key issue. Neo-con outlets like the Times of London and Time magazine are now reporting that the North African bombings are a warning to France.

Perfect timing for Sarkozy.

This Sunday.

Sly Bug wrote: