JDanger wrote:oxlongm wrote:...Of all the possible Republican nominees, I think the only one who could possibly be vulnerable to Bloomberg is Fred Thompson.
I am interested to hear this theory in detail.
It's not that completely thought through, and definitely not detailed. Obviously, anyone with a party nomination starts out with an enormous organizational advantage, and most of the Republicans with a chance at the nomination (Giuliani, McCain, Romney) overlap in some ways with Bloomberg's strengths. Giuliani and Romney have reputations as effective administrators and are both fairly moderate politically, although Romney's done a good job of faking conservatism lately. McCain... well, I don't think he's going to get nominated. But if he does, he'll immediately shift gears to try to revive his old image as a maverick independent, and he might succeed. All three are going to raise money easily, and in Romney's case he could probably bankroll it himself.
To me, Thompson stands out among them. He's easily the most conservative, has no executive experience, and is entirely untested and undisciplined by the rigors and scrutiny of a national campaign. These are all contrasts with Bloomberg that work in Bloomberg's favor (he's never run a national campaign, but he did become filthy rich by building up his own business and now has arguably the hardest job in American government, so I can assume he's pretty disciplined.)
Whereas I get the impression Thompson is lazy, and his political career amounts to a little more than one Senate term from a solidly Republican state. Thompson would need a Karl Rove to whip him into shape, and I'm not sure he has one. If Thompson does get the nomination, it'll be because the right wing of the Republican party has fallen in love with whoever reminds them of their dearly departed personable, eloquent right-wing divorced actor. I'm not convinced that this will translate into broad enough electoral support. I'm not at all sure that Bloomberg could beat him, but I think he's Bloomberg's best chance.