connor wrote:tmidgett wrote:They could basically say anything about Obama, as long as it helps HRC win, b/c the minute he's running for VP, everyone (like me) who is totally grossed out by them is immediately OK with the ticket. Smart politically, though the execution was offensive and backfired on them as it should have.
I just hate to think of how Obama would likely be completely shut-out of such an administration. I'm not a big fan of the Clintons.
Obama's got a good strategy here. He's moving up in the Super Tuesday states and already looking ahead in the rest. I'm pretty surprised that more major media outlets didn't pick up on
this story. El Piolín is the most widely-listened to radio show in the country (more than Stern or Limbaugh) and a couple of days ago, they had Ted Kennedy on who spent the entire time heaping praise upon Obama (and himself). El Piolín is the show that organized the May 1 immigration protests. Plus, the endorsement of the LA Times and La Opinion point to a very, very possible California win (he's only 3 pts down there).
If Obama wins California, I bet he can get the nomination.
You know, I looked at Ob's sched the last few days and coming days, and I looked at the map, and I thought about how they award delegates....
He has a shot.
He is using a pretty advanced strategy.
Most delegates are 'district delegates,' awarded proportional to vote in a particular congressional district. The rest are statewide delegates, awarded proportional to statewide vote. Then there are the superdelegates.
Forget the superdelegates. Not that they aren't important, but they're only VERY important if no one has any momentum getting close to the convention.
Statewide delegates will be a wash in any states closer than 10pts. So you win by 8pts, 54-46. As I understand it, you split the statewide delegates. Merry Christmas, you might as well have won by 0.0001pct.
This is how Obama 'lost' NV and got more delegates than HRC anyway.
District delegates are where the action is.
Obama is angling to beat HRC badly in particular districts. That is why he is spending time in Idaho, Minnesota, and the like. It is totally possible that he will 'lose' notably more states than HRC but beat her by badly enough in certain districts he wants to win that he will be even or better in the delegate count.
And if he gets past Super Tuesday, and they're still pretty close in delegate count, he has MUCH more time to make his case to the remaining districts and (less importantly) states that matter.
People know HRC. She needs not just a return of her prev support but new support. Good luck--she will get this support only from people who have given up trying to decide, not so much from people who are suddenly totally into her after all these years. She's a totally known qty, and she can't get over 44-45pct in national polls.
People w/o a direct interest in politics don't even know Obama yet, and in general the more people see him, the more they like him. Even if they don't agree with his positions all the time. He has time after Tuesday if he can just keep HRC from getting too close to the magic number.
It's going to be a very interesting night on 5 Feb.