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losthighway wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:58 pm What off ramp would Russia even take seriously? The only one I can think of is for Ukraine to break off a chunk of their country and give it to Putin.

That's the crux of it all.

losthighway wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:58 pm

Gramsci wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:53 pm
But it’s ludicrous to say you end wars by pouring arms into a region while at the same time offering the beligerante power no acceptable exit. This is a nuclear armed Russia, and despite what the US did to the country via Jeffery Sacks and friends, not some piss pot banana republic. Western powers should be deescalating while looking for rapid ways to get Europe off its addiction to Russian hydrocarbons. But you can’t do that if we’re all ash.

What off ramp would Russia even take seriously? The only one I can think of is for Ukraine to break off a chunk of their country and give it to Putin.

Realistically that’s going to be the outcome regardless. The question is how many people die between now and when that treaty is signed.

I think part of the problem is we - broadly people living in Nato, “western” countries - assume we have a dominant hegemony and can just “be stronger”. That just isn’t true. The issues between Russia and Ukraine are actually highly complex. But my amateur take is we are missing a big factor in this, Russian internal political management. I’m sure Putin has a big eye on his regime’s popularity and like “our” leaders a good war is a tried and tested method of shoring up support and suppressing internal dissent.

What would have happened if Russia started flooding weapons into Iraq? We’d all be dead right now. It’s just not a grown up position to take bullish West Wing fantasies and think that will solve this crisis.

Gramsci wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:06 am Realistically that’s going to be the outcome regardless. The question is how many people die between now and when that treaty is signed.

What do you then propose for the Baltics?

A_Man_Who_Tries wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:39 am

Gramsci wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:06 am Realistically that’s going to be the outcome regardless. The question is how many people die between now and when that treaty is signed.

What do you then propose for the Baltics?

You are assuming Russia is going to invade Eastern Europe including EU and NATO members?

You are extrapolating from Ukraine it’s straight onto WWIII.

And beyond the already collective defence pact how do you propose to stop this imaginary situation that is essentially the core concern of 40 years of the Cold War? By pouring more and more weapons and troops onto NATO’s eastern border and increasing the chance of an accident that will escalate into civilisation ending war.

Putin is a not an irrational lunatic surrounded by lunatics. He’s a autocratic monster using the excuse of NATO provocation and the Ukrainian Nazi problem to flex military might to manage internal political threats and reestablish Russian dominance in “its” sphere of influence.

All of this can and must be resolved by diplomatic means.

Gramsci wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:33 am

A_Man_Who_Tries wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:39 am

Gramsci wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:06 am Realistically that’s going to be the outcome regardless. The question is how many people die between now and when that treaty is signed.

What do you then propose for the Baltics?

You are assuming Russia is going to invade Eastern Europe including EU and NATO members?

You are extrapolating from Ukraine it’s straight onto WWIII.

And beyond the already collective defence pact how do propose to stop this imaginary situation that is essentially the core concern of 40 years of the Cold War? By pouring more and more weapons and troops onto NATO’s eastern border and increasing the chance of an accident that will escalate into civilisation ending war.

Putin is a not an irrational lunatic surrounded by lunatics. He’s a autocratic monster using the excuse of NATO provocation and the Ukrainian Nazi problem to flex military might to manage internal political treats and reestablish Russian dominance in “its” sphere of influence.

All of this can and must be resolved by diplomatic means.

Aye, alright.

This whole armanent scenario already played out once in Cuba, and as I temember it, the US did not care for it.

zorg wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:20 am This whole armanent scenario already played out once in Cuba, and as I temember it, the US did not care for it.

I don't know. That was a revolution, not a land grab.

Gramsci wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:06 am I’m sure Putin has a big eye on his regime’s popularity and like “our” leaders a good war is a tried and tested method of shoring up support and suppressing internal dissent.

It's difficult to know for sure because public opinion is difficult to accurately gauge in any place, none more than a place with state media and secret police, but if the western media is to be believed the Russian business moguls and engaged citizens are highly critical of the war. Couple that with rising casualties and a recession; Putin is under intense pressure.

That could mean an eventual withdrawal but as you alluded it could make a desperate despot dangerous (excuse the alliteration).

losthighway wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:03 am

zorg wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:20 am This whole armanent scenario already played out once in Cuba, and as I temember it, the US did not care for it.

I don't know. That was a revolution, not a land grab.

I didn’ mean the revolution, but the following violent posturing where Russia wanted to put nukes near florida and the US bay of pigs invasion, etc….Shoe was on the other foot, as it were.

zorg wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:50 am

losthighway wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:03 am

zorg wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:20 am This whole armanent scenario already played out once in Cuba, and as I temember it, the US did not care for it.

I don't know. That was a revolution, not a land grab.

I didn’ mean the revolution, but the following violent posturing where Russia wanted to put nukes near florida and the US bay of pigs invasion, etc….Shoe was on the other foot, as it were.

Oh, of course. Duh, sorry.

Yeah, the dynamics of that attempt have clear similarities although I'd say the Ukrainian army is a better bet than the Democratic Revolutionary Front was if I'm playing armchair colonel.

But dang that example connects pretty well to Afghanistan as well.