Gramsci wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:35 am I’m curious. To our US posters what’s the vibe on the ground there? It’s easy to sucked into my YouTube algorithm. News in the US is hard to decipher because beyond NBC/ABC etc it’s so partisan.

I’m getting it’s likely Harris will win, about 60/40…

Keeping in mind that I live in a politically purple exurb of Chicago, I have some confidence that Harris is going to win. If you're saying 60% chance, I might agree. If you're saying 60% of electoral votes, no, that's not happening.

There are always fervent Trump supporters around, but as I posted previously, there are also a lot of exhausted republicans who are just done with Trump and ready to move on.

This is going to be my oldest daughter's first-time voting, and she has said that she and her friends are so much more excited to vote for Harris than they were for Biden. Turnout (or lack of turnout) of young folks is going to make a huge difference, as it usually does, so thank you Taylor Swift.

Harris is probably going to lose Arizona or Georgia this time around. But keep an eye on Florida and Texas. If for some reason one of those goes Harris's way, Trump is done.

(just read two other posts above while I was about to post this... obviously, there isn't consensus on this)

Gramsci wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:35 am I’m curious. To our US posters what’s the vibe on the ground there? It’s easy to sucked into my YouTube algorithm. News in the US is hard to decipher because beyond NBC/ABC etc it’s so partisan.

I’m getting it’s likely Harris will win, about 60/40…

Sorry, I obviously misread your post if you are talking about odds. I don't know if it is even productive to think in those terms with how close it is. Trump was given 30% odds in 2016 etc.

jimmy spako wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:44 am That would mean Harris gets 323 votes in the Electoral College. That would be the equivalent of a landslide in contemporary terms. Biden got 306 in 2020.
It will likely come down to mere tens of thousands of votes in a couple states again. But I'll certainly be happy to be wrong if she can flip enough states to make it beyond a matter of contention and obstruction in one or two states.

Sorry I meant 60/40% chance of winning. Not vote split. I’m going of probability aggregators.

Also don't count on the youth vote, Trump is winning clearly with young men and attempting to run up the score there.

Same here with the AfD, they've made terrifying gains with the youth vote.

the vibe is the dems blew it again, senile biden had a better shot than kamala

jimmy spako wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:20 am Also don't count on the youth vote, Trump is winning clearly with young men and attempting to run up the score there.

Same here with the AfD, they've made terrifying gains with the youth vote.

Nah, Trump supporters are just louder and more obnoxious, especially the young ones.

Voter turnout in the youngest demographics (still) makes a huge difference.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... ification/

Once again, the House can only get things done by conceding to Democrats not MAGA (and no Trump voter suppression BS, Nelson Muntz ha ha)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... rcna172044

penningtron wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:31 am Once again, the House can only get things done by conceding to Democrats not MAGA (and no Trump voter suppression BS, Nelson Muntz ha ha)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... rcna172044

I'm getting precariously close to saying something nice about that goober Mike Johnson. Not there yet though.

jfv wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:37 am

penningtron wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:31 am Once again, the House can only get things done by conceding to Democrats not MAGA (and no Trump voter suppression BS, Nelson Muntz ha ha)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... rcna172044

I'm getting precariously close to saying something nice about that goober Mike Johnson. Not there yet though.

Fingers crossed MAGA attempts something even more dumb like ousting him a month before the election.

jfv wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:27 am

jimmy spako wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:20 am Also don't count on the youth vote, Trump is winning clearly with young men and attempting to run up the score there.

Same here with the AfD, they've made terrifying gains with the youth vote.

Nah, Trump supporters are just louder and more obnoxious, especially the young ones.

Voter turnout in the youngest demographics (still) makes a huge difference.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... ification/

Sorry for the weird source, the NYT etc. are paywalled, but this gets the point across:

https://san.com/cc/majority-of-young-me ... -20-years/

The gender gap is now larger under 30 than in some (if not all) older ranges. This is new and may be a major factor pushing Trump over the top. The strategy seems to be to run up the score here.

I am distrustful of any pro-Democratic-Party "count on the demographic shifts" arguments after the past few elections.

Edited to add another source:

https://www.newsweek.com/gender-divide- ... on-1939253