sparky wrote:To be fair Bob, the post-WWII boom was largely fuelled by immense military expenditure and massive exporting. The former is not sustainable without further conquest of territories for resource.
Further conquest and further destruction; as you say, if the strongest economies are coal-burning locomotives, with the coal being war and war preparation, then you must always be moving down the tracks like a shark.
sparky wrote:The latter reason has a flipside, which is that if you wish to export with impunity, your own market is fair game for more efficient importers. Your dating of globalisation to after this golden age appears off to me.
No, but I think that the repercussions of rebuilt Europe and rebuilt Japan were not felt by the US labor market all that severely until the '70's; then it was like the dike broke, and our trade position seesawed down to where it stands today.
sparky wrote:I'm not saying that this is a good thing, but the forces that the US (and to a lesser extent the UK, with financial services) benefitted from post-war are the same that exist today. Trade moves faster, communication is instantaneous, but the forces are the same. Only the boot is on the other foot.
I personally think the boot has been worn by the same foot for a long time, and the goal of the boot has been to put downward pressure on an expanding middle class, no matter where in the world the boot finds it.
sparky wrote:To be honest, thinking about these arguments from this perspective, I actually feel more favourable to the current system, though not enough to like it. There is a measure of what goes around comes around.
Absolutely.
If the US is the economic bully of the world, we are long overdue for our punch in the nose, but the consequences of any punching will not be felt by the wearer of the boot- if capital is like blood and an economy is like a lung, the capital will rush to whichever lung can give it the most oxygen. If central banking is the vascular heart of first world finance, there is always a strengthening lung ready to replace a weakening lung.
sparky wrote:EDIT for afterthought: The last point reflects a sort of perverse glee I get from developing countries (hateful term!) starting to beat the old powers at their own game. It's off, of course; the poor sods being laid off didn't do anything wrong. But, there is an undeniable redistribution of wealth from West to East aspect to these trends.
I wish there was no hill and no king of the hill, because the boulders of income redistribution tumble downhill from just above the heads of the middle classes, never from the peak.