After Ukraine Finland shares the longest bit of border with Russia and we've heard a lot of threats of invasion during the Putin years. So, no, we don't think the chances are 0 %. That is wishful thinking and burying your head in to sand. Of course I hope it doesn't come to that, but I fear I might be stomping on mines during my lifetime.

Shananiganz wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 4:11 pm we've heard a lot of threats of invasion during the Putin years.

Quote one reliable source.

FWIW, Matt Taibbi and Glenn Greenwald were both certain that Putin wouldn’t invade Ukraine, and Greenwald at least (if I’m not mistaken) has pretty much accepted every piece of pro-Putin propaganda uncritically.

The odds of a Russian invasion of some other European country are absolutely greater than 0%, come on. Yes, “leading Europe into an arms race is self-defeating, ugly and dumb, and ultimately destined to fail.” Yet thousands of years of documented human history shows that self-defeating, dumb, and destined-to-fail wars are as common as sunrises.

zorg wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 3:48 pm So I would say hate the Ruskies all you want, but leading Europe into a arms race is self-defeating, ugly and dumb, and ultimately destined to fail.

I mean, so is invading a country as large, populous, culturally varied, and stubbornly independence-minded as Ukraine a full 23 years after it first broke from Russia's orbit. Never mind doing that after two successful revolts over a stolen election and an ideologically compromised president who was taking Kremlin bribes. Then doubling down and attempting an even larger invasion after the first invasion had stalled.

Yet here we are...

All it takes is a little hubris.

I'd say Russia is perhaps the only country in Europe proud and stubborn enough to lead the continent into an arms race.

zorg wrote:So I agree that the tendency is for powerful countries to be horrible, untrustworthy and violent, but I don't see the Russians being an outlier here, and maintain that that chance of a Russian invasion of EU territories is at 0%.

But a lot of that has more to do w/Russia bring relatively poor and corrupt and engaging in foolhardy, money-sucking military campaigns. Were Russia prospering more, I think you might see a unique level of brutality, as you did in both czarist and communist times.

In the much more recent past, its approach in Chechnya almost makes Israel's leveling of Gaza look gentle. Though the root causes differ a little, the results are much the same. One echoes the other.

If the stars aligned, I think Russia would jump at the chance to reoccupy bits of its neighbors. It has already done so in no less than three ex-Soviet states (first Moldova, then Georgia, then Ukraine) and has never loosened its grip, even decades after. In that sense, its behavior in the modern world is somewhat unique.

zorg wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 4:18 pm

Shananiganz wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 4:11 pm we've heard a lot of threats of invasion during the Putin years.

Quote one reliable source.

I usually stay out of the politics threads, but it seems you have left off the " /s " in that post.

iembalm wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:21 pm

zorg wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 4:18 pm

Shananiganz wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 4:11 pm we've heard a lot of threats of invasion during the Putin years.

Quote one reliable source.

I usually stay out of the politics threads, but it seems you have left off the " /s " in that post.

Too numerous to count, huh? Go on then, I’ll take just one threat to invade Finland or any other EU country.

The fuck? Where do you live?
When I have the time I'll dig some articles. In the meantime brush up on your Finnish, they will be from Finnish national broadcast company YLE (widely considered reliable source). But what is reliable to you? Sounds like you'll bend over backwards to defend Russia. That's a weird way to have a conversation, demanding shit.

They will probably leave us alone, seeing how it's going with Ukraine. They know we are better equipped and better trained and we don't have that much anything they could gain from, but we have been a thorn in Russia's side for ages. Also a good neighbour, but that doesn't seem to matter.

zorg wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 4:18 pm

Shananiganz wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 4:11 pm we've heard a lot of threats of invasion during the Putin years.

Quote one reliable source.

Managed to find some recent articles in English, just for you. They are threats due Finland joining NATO. Now you'll probably defend Russia and say we caused it by joining NATO?
https://yle.fi/a/74-20045134
https://yle.fi/a/74-20065457
https://yle.fi/a/3-12405420
https://www.is.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000010212372.html This one is in Finnish, but you can see the cockcocket Medvedev's tweet embedded there.

This is from 2012, still about NATO. The thing is, majority of Finnish people were against joining NATO at this time.
https://jamestown.org/program/general-m ... n-finland/

The mood changed drastically when the Ukrainian invasion kicked off again.

Is this enough? Would you have some tea with it?

zorg wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:13 am

JohnAlbert wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2025 5:38 am One of these folks is an old, dear friend of mine. He has leftist credentials, having written a lot of articles for CounterPunch. We got into it a number of times on Facebook, in the run-up to last year's election, because he was repeatedly and stridently telling people not to vote for Harris.

I wonder how he's feeling right now, seeing that Trump is literally advocating to clear all the Palestinians out of Gaza and bulldoze it to make way for luxury condos and hotels.

If you're suggesting that the administration that proudly razed Gaza, killed 50k (70% women and children) while at the same time denying basic humanitarian aid for the survivors.....all in the name of self-defense, was planning to rebuild Gaza for the Gazans, you can call me whatever you want.

Where did I ever even suggest such a thing? Also, what the fuck are you talking about?

"Neo-tankies" are the self-described leftists who parrot Kremlin propaganda. Full stop. If that's you, then you wear that moniker.

And yes, it is true that the Biden administration was apparently beholden to Israel, to the point of not giving a shit about the Palestinians.

But so is Trump.

And Trump is bringing a lot more fascism than Harris ever would have done.

Are you going to deny that?

The above is exactly correct, unfortunately.

The issue this time was if you did an excel spreadsheet of policies, on Gaza the column has the same shit in it so they neutralise each other. So you look at the other stuff. This time around it wasn’t W vs That Guy with the Huge Chin, it was establishment liberal vs fascist. Keeping that at bay for another cycle was worth putting a peg on your nose.