Could Obama get elected without " evangelicals" ?
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 3:37 pm
ubercat wrote:
I'm pretty sure you just adopted my argument against me. The reason why evangelicals voted in high numbers is because they are towing the 'religious party' line. These are mostly people in fear of being left out of salvation and afraid of being ostracized in the real world.
Small towns in the US are populated primarily by evangelicals and people who claim they're evangelicals so they don't have to swim upsteam (in life). Many of the 'fake' evangelicals are exploiting the close knit nature of small local churches, so they vote accordingly.
In terms of the neatest part of it, I don't disagree at all. But there are two big elements that you don't take into account and McCain doesn't appeal to.
Firstly the fact that most of the liberal-voting religious consider themselves part of a community of faiths rather than fundamentalists. Even though they might seem like fundamentalists compared to Johnny Messageboard Punkrocker, they might consider themselves to be a particular diverse lentil in the boiling pot.
And also the "spiral", it is impossible to measure the impact of single issue voters on turn outs because polling is completely garbled by the marked different between what people actually turn out to vote for and what they would like to be seen to be supporting. Abortion is historically at the heart of this problem in the UK, and there is no reason to think that it isn't a bigger inaccuracy in the USA. It seems very safe to assume single issue voters gave Bush the presidency, but we will never know for sure. In religious communities and isolated areas the "spiral of silence" is so much stronger, because people are keen to keep up appearances on issues that totally do not affect them. Elderly male voters weighing on abortion are less likely to vote the way that they poll for obvious reasons, whereas a lot of young left-leaning women may vote for a pro-life candidate because they have emotive reasons to support pro-life policies that they might not voice when amongst friends.
And it's so freaking easy to demonize abortion...
For "abortion" read "women". They might be aborting your children without your permission! With your federal tax dollars, even.