I believe he's got a lot of hype behind him, but he hasn't proven anything of real significance. He is a junior senator who acts just that: he hasn't passed any tests that would prove his mettle as the President. Just because he's energetic, black and talks big doesn't mean anything until he puts his money where his mouth is. The only things he's done that have gotten press lately is talk about how Democrats need to speak about religion openly. I see that as pandering to a block of voters and not really speaking about important issues, like getting out of Iraq or impeaching the current p.o.s. in the Oval office right now.
Give him a few years under his belt, enough to prove what kind of politician he is, then perhaps he should start running. But at the moment it seems to me that he only ran for Senate as a launching pad for the Presidency and I don't see how that's helpful to the Democrats or the rest of the country.
To point out:
Given his national profile and formidable political talents, he could have been a potent spokesman for Democratic causes in the Senate. Instead, he has refused to expend his political or personal capital on a single controversial issue, preferring to offer anodyne pieces of legislation and sign on to the popular efforts of others.
The last few times Obama has come out on an issue, even the one with McCain, he seems to crumble under the pressure or I find myself completely disagreeing with his choices. There's no question the man has potential, but I'd hate to see him spoil all his capital before he does something extraordinary to prove he's not all hype.