All the states that went to Kerry in 2004 will go to Obama. If McCain won't lay off his pro-NAFTA talk, Ohio (a deeply conservative state) will go to Obama.
Ohio is 'deeply conservative'? Compared to what? Not in comparison with the other 49 states its not.
Ohio Political Demographics And History
Politically, Ohio is considered a swing state. The Economist notes that, "This slice of the mid-west contains a bit of everything American—part north-eastern and part southern, part urban and part rural, part hardscrabble poverty and part booming suburb,"[35]
The mixture of urban and rural areas, and the presence of both large blue-collar industries and significant white-collar commercial districts leads to a balance of conservative and liberal population that (together with the state's 20 electoral votes, more than most swing states) makes the state very important to the outcome of national elections. Ohio was a deciding state in the 2004 presidential election between George W. Bush and John Kerry. Bush narrowly won the state's 20 electoral votes by a margin of 2 percentage points and 50.8% of the vote [4]. The state supported Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but supported Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. Ohio was also a deciding factor in the 1948 presidential election when Democrat Harry S. Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey (who had won the state four years earlier) and in the 1976 presidential election when Democrat Jimmy Carter defeated Republican Gerald Ford by a slim margin in Ohio and took the election.
Ohio's demographics cause many to consider the state as a microcosm of the nation as a whole. A Republican presidential candidate has never won the White House without winning Ohio, and Ohio has gone to the winner of the election in all but two contests since 1892, backing only losers Thomas E. Dewey in 1944 (Ohio's John Bricker was his running mate) and Richard M. Nixon in 1960. Consequently, the state is very important to the campaigns of both major parties. Ohio had 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College in 2004.