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Well, after a ridiculous two year Presidential campaign, about three months might count as "poised" in relative terms.

Of course, a week is a long damn time in politics, yadda yadda yadda.

Rick Reuben wrote:

Minotaur029 wrote:Here's the thing though, fellas:

If McCain drops out in say...August...then some other dude has three months to build up a sufficient organization with their own people...their own money...their own coherent message. Elections aren't won based on the strength of some new contender's character..

I truly can't believe you wrote that boldfaced sentence in the Year Of Barack.

Rawr. Keyboard I love you. Do you love me?

Rick Reuben wrote:

Minotaur029 wrote:Here's the thing though, fellas:

If McCain drops out in say...August...then some other dude has three months to build up a sufficient organization with their own people...their own money...their own coherent message. Elections aren't won based on the strength of some new contender's character..

I truly can't believe you wrote that boldfaced sentence in the Year Of Barack.

Obama had been on the national stage for about four years coming into this thing. But yes, I see the humor.

The point: Obama set up a huge organization. If Bill Frist magically joined the race, he'd be in a similarly huge hole.

tmidgett wrote:But I would have to get 10 to 1, and I would have to win if McCain is out for any reason (incl death).

I think I'd be giving up too much equity that way.

How about I lay 9 to 1 for any political reason (including sex scandals, revelations of homosexuality, child molestation, etc.) but 5:1 for a force majuere (that is: death, illness, imprisonment, lost at sea, or any other reason that would prevent him from serving as president)?

McCain could choose Larry Craig as his vice presidential running mate, they could ride out of the press conference on a horse together, and republicans would still vote for him.

No way he drops out.

Actually two points there, you only touched on the first.

McCain will get votes. Even though he flip flops, is an elitist, gets botox injections, has an independently wealthy wife, owns a shady service record in Vietnam, all of which sounds remarkably familiar to the shit they leveled at John Kerry, but here they are backing McCain.

The second was based on McCain's rationale. No way he drops out.

As far as McCain is concerned, it's his turn, he's not running to make America better, he's running based on his political ambition. He wouldn't step down if they asked, he already did this for Bush. No way he does it again.

Beyond all of this, Republicans don't have an organized superdelegate system in place to force his hand. Democrats built this system to keep unelectable politicians from somehow ascending to candidate roles. The Republicans do have is a system of pledged delegates. Which consist of low level appointees that already favor a particular candidate based on the local primary results, not designed to overthrow an unelectable candidate.

Thought RR would be interested to know that there's finally a poll that shows McCain on top in Colorado:

46%-44% in favor of McCain. It just came out today (Quinnipiac).

FMajcinek wrote:

tmidgett wrote:But I would have to get 10 to 1, and I would have to win if McCain is out for any reason (incl death).

I think I'd be giving up too much equity that way.

How about I lay 9 to 1 for any political reason (including sex scandals, revelations of homosexuality, child molestation, etc.) but 5:1 for a force majuere (that is: death, illness, imprisonment, lost at sea, or any other reason that would prevent him from serving as president)?

Nah. It's too easy for him to cloak a departure as illness etc. I think my real odds would be 8 to 1 or so in that case.

Rick Reuben wrote:If their minds wander away from the programming, then they may peer around the curtain and see who's running Oz.

Rick Reuben wrote:

Matthew Taylor wrote:The second was based on McCain's rationale. No way he drops out.

You're still talking about McCain getting votes. The first stage of the voting process is over. We are talking about McCain leaving the ticket between now and Election day, the next voting day.

Yes, I did talk about votes, THEN I voiced my opinion that he won't step down no matter what, my reasoning for this has nothing to do with votes.